Solar Minimum Blues

Solar Minimum Blues 

by Miles Mathis

http://milesmathis.com/updates.html

First published April 26, 2019 

As you may know by now,  I am the only person in the world who successfully predicted the current Solar Cycle would start in 2018. “The experts” predicted 2020. But guess what, as of April 10, 2019, they are still predicting 2020. See this article at SpaceWeatherArchive.com on that date, where we find “an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle” issuing a report, predicting lowest levels “between now and the end of 2020”. 

First of all, I have to point out how pusillanimous these people are with their predictions: here we are in April of 2019, right on the cusp of the event itself, and they are still giving themselves a window of 20 months? Not much of a prediction, is it? Just proves they haven't got a clue. I successfully predicted this back in 2014. But it is even worse than that, because according to data posted by the mainstream, we are actually about a year past the event. In other places, it is admitted by professionals collecting this data that we entered Solar Minimum back in April of 2018. [See my paper linked above to see the links to the mainstream data.] Do these experts not know how to find data and read it? 

Here is a graph from the current article: 

But that isn't even accurate, since the light blue bar is in the wrong place. According to data already posted and admitted by the colleagues of these experts, no prediction is necessary for the placement of that blue bar. It is known that the current minimum started back in April of 2018 (or November 12, 2017). So they need to move the blue bar back at least 15 months. Plus, just look at how incompetent these people are at creating graphs. They have a red line in the legend tagged “predicted values”. Do you see a red line in the graph? I don't. 

Also notice that they stop the blue line at about March 2018. That's curious, isn't it? Since this is now April 2019, and they draw a lot more dots, why stop the blue line there? Because that is when they want to start fudging their interpretation, pretending Minimum didn't start then. They tell you we aren't in the same sort of hole we were in 2009, but their data is telling you the opposite. I guess they just hope you are blind. But they even draw the purple straight line, and you can see for yourself that we have been sub-purple since either November 2017 or February 2018, depending on how you wish to read the chart. 

Beyond that, the “smoothed monthly value” blue line is drawn in the wrong place after August 2017. Notice that six straight months of values are below that line, which means the line—as drawn—is way too high at that point. That by itself is a big sign of a fudge here. We know it is not an accidental fudge, because it supports the lie they are trying to tell here. Do you think that was just an oversight? 

Incredibly, they quote Lisa Upton, panel co-chair and solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp, saying 

As you can see – we haven’t quite reached the lowest levels of the last cycle – where we experienced several consecutive months with no sunspots. 

But all you have to do is visit solen.info to see she is wrong. Sunspot activity in the past year and a half has been extremely anemic. We have been in a deep well for more than 17 months. The average for March 2018 was an abysmal 2.7 per day. July 2018 was even worse, with .35 per day. That's worse than any month in 2009. Only August 2008 had zero, and I don't know where Upton's “several consecutive months with no sunspots” is located. So this article looks like another big lie from the mainstream, to cover their failure. 

I not only predicted the early start of the current cycle, but—after the Sun proved me correct—I predicted the mainstream would do something like this: pretending that what had happened hadn't really happened, so that they didn't have to admit I was right. That is exactly what we see in this article. They are pretending all the data of the last year and a half simply doesn't exist. They are pretending their colleagues haven't already posted this data and admitted what it means. We see that they have ordered the creation of fake graphs, misrepresenting known data. Incredible. Really incredible. 

I also would like to remind you that the mainstream experts were just as gloriously wrong about the last Solar Cycle. See  this Smithsonian article from 2009 admitting that they were almost two years wrong about the start of Cycle 24. They also predicted Cycle 24 would be especially active, when it was just the opposite. It was the weakest Cycle since the 1880s. 

So you have to ask why these experts even bother to show up for these conferences. They are apparently unembarrassable and unshamable. Anyone from the mainstream with any sense would have given up by now. They would have gotten their invitation for this conference and said, “Hey, no way, not me! I'm not going to put my name on that list again. Do you think I like looking stupid?” But that isn't the case, apparently. These people like Lisa Upton are the ones with nothing to lose, I guess. Any excuse to get out of town and be quoted in the press. 

I have told them how to predict these Cycles. It isn't by feeding into the computer “61 predictions in the following categories: Climatology, Dynamo, Machine Learning/Neural Networks, Precursor Methods, Spectral/Statistical Methods, Surface Flux Transport, and Other”. It is by tracking Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. See this paper from 2014, , where I lay it all out for them in black and white. I guess they think that looks like astrology, but it has nothing to do with astrology. It has to do with a magnetic feedback loop between the Sun and planets, one they already admit exists. Or, they know about the outgoing part of it anyway, since it is the same thing that creates the magnetospheres, aurorae, and many other known phenomena. What they don't understand is that the planets return charge to the Sun on the same lines, creating a loop. This is what drives the Solar Cycles. When the planets are most nearly aligned relative to the Sun, we have a maximum; when they are least aligned, we have minimum. That has nothing to do with the Zodiac or houses or aspects, but it does have to do with angles. Every electrical engineer knows that angles are important with the magnetic field. Everyone with a magnet on their refrigerator knows that, since if you destroy the proper angle the magnetism disappears. This isn't wuwu, it is physics. 

But let's go back to their list for moment. Again, that was “61 predictions in the following categories: Climatology, Dynamo, Machine Learning/Neural Networks, Precursor Methods, Spectral/Statistical Methods, Surface Flux Transport, and Other”. Most of that is obvious bombast, reeking of desperation. Only a couple of those make any sense at all. If I didn't know about the charge field and feedback from the planets, I might understand them looking at Climatology, Dynamo, and Surface Flux Transport. But what is the rest of this stuff? Machine Learning? Precursor Methods? Spectral Methods? That just shows they are hoping the computers can come up with something where they have zip. Remember, spectral methods have nothing to do with the light spectrum or anything of that nature. They have to do with mathematical tricks, more akin to spectral meaning “shadowy” or “phantom”. In my papers, we have looked at a class of spectral methods in perturbation and chaos theory, where they tried to solve remaining inequalities by assigning them to terms in a series. Think Laplace and the multi-body problem, where instead of recognizing that the celestial field was a dual field of both gravity and charge, he instead forced a mathematical solution in the single field, using various calculus and series tricks. Einstein did a similar thing when assigning terms in his expansion of gamma into an infinite series. He assigned the main term to the “classical” value, then assigned other terms to Relativity corrections. This is now called parameterized post-Newtonian formalism. But since I showed gamma was false (see part 1) and never contained a square root even in Einstein's own math, his method was just more fudgery. Those are the kind of tricks they are trying to use here, obviously to no effect. 

But back to the matter at hand. In my 2014 paper, I showed the maxima are always double-humped, which is (normally) caused by the alignments of Jupiter/Neptune and Jupiter/Saturn. I showed how to calculate the relative size of the humps, as well as showing how to predict whether the first hump would be larger or smaller. 

So if we want to know when the next maximum will be, all we have to do is track the big four planets. In the current article, the experts predict the next maximum in 2023-2026. 

But they aren't even close. I have already predicted a first peak in 2021 (Jupiter/Saturn) and a second one in 2022 (Jupiter/Neptune), so they are nearly two years off. I predict a quick early rise starting in 2019 and a higher than usual tail-off, since Jupiter/Uranus will be lining up in early 2024. That may even give us a third smaller hump, like we saw in the 1970s. Because the two main peaks are fairly close together, I predict a rise past 150 with a nice total peak to it. It won't be as flat-topped as cycle 24 —where the two peaks were more than two years apart. This time they will be only about 16 months apart, so Jupiter and Saturn can support one another. The only problem is that when Saturn is in line, Uranus will be at 90, giving no support to the first hump. Therefore, the second hump of Cycle 25 should again be larger than the first. As we saw, that was backward to the trend from the 1930s to the 2000s. 

In my 2014 paper, I said the maximum would be longish, and now I seem to say the opposite. But here, I am just pointing out that the gap between the two highest peaks will be shorter than Cycle 24. Again, about 16 months. But the “lower part of the mountain” will be broad, since both Saturn and then Neptune line up, supporting one another. Also, the far slope of the mountain will not be steep, since that is where Uranus will come in. 

[Update April 28, 2019: A kind reader sent me a link to Fourmilab's Solar System moveable graphic, which is just what I needed. I will now use it to update and extend my prediction. Amazingly, I had the planets in the right places in the above analysis, so I don't have to change anything. I just have to add to it. As it turns out, Saturn and Uranus align at the end of 2025, which should give us a fourth little hump in the tail out, again like in the 1970s. I wasn't able to see that in my head. So my prediction for Cycle 25 is looking a lot like Cycle 20. With these differences: I think Cycle 25 may peak higher, since the two main peaks are closer together. They will support each other, you see. Also, I am predicting a bigger second peak, while in Cycle 20 the first peak was slightly higher. But again like Cycle 20, Cycle 25 will have a high final minimum. We won't see the low dip like we are seeing now. Why? Because in September of 2028, Jupiter will already be aligning with Neptune again. That means that the worst of the minimum will be in the second half of 2027, as Saturn moves off the line with Neptune and Jupiter moves toward it. Uranus is completely out of the mix after early 2024. But since none of the angles between the big three are too large, minimum will not go low in 2027. If we take November 2017 as the start of Cycle 25, then the Cycle will be about 10 years, which is shortish. But it may look longer on the charts, since the base of the mountain will be very broad, with a high tail out and a couple of noticeable bumps on it.] 

As you can see, the mainstream predicts an end to Cycle 25 way out in 2030. But that is based on a 2020 start date, so it is already two years off. But since Cycle 25 will be another short one, it will end in late 2027. Basically, the mainstream is off by about two years all the way, just like they were with Cycle 24. Not a very good prediction, especially considering they wait to the last minute to post it. If they were smart—or if their computers were smart, either one—they would have recognized from their own data that Cycle 25 had started very early, and they would have moved all of Cycle 25 up by two years. They still wouldn't have been able to predict the form of the Cycle, but at least they could have placed it better. 

I find it funny that despite the fact this isn't astrology—since it concerns real photons moving from Sun to planets—the astrologers are actually closer to being correct here than the astronomers. No, I am not aware of any astrologers who predicted Solar Minimum in 2018, but they do know that the malaise of 2018-19 had to do with Neptune being “square”. In other words, with Neptune being 90 degrees from Jupiter as seen from the Sun.* They are right: that really is (one part of) why you may feel like garbage right now. The charge field of the Solar System is anemic, due to unalignment in the magnetic fields between planets and Sun. Doesn't help that Saturn was also squarish, being at around 45 degrees. Same for Uranus. And it explains why 2018 was also anemic. Although Neptune wasn't as square, Saturn was squarer. None of the big four have been aligned for a long time, giving us an extremely weak charge environment. 

But this Minimum is actually worse than the last one, though that isn't clear just from looking at sunspot charts. The total strength of the field should be studied, though it usually isn't. Because our last maximum was anemic as well, and the cycle short, the total charge in the field is way off. A lot of charge is escaping the field sideways, uncontained by the magnetic fields. And there may be another factor involved, completely outside this short-term cycle. The Sun and the entire Solar System moves through different levels of charge as it circles the galactic core, so we may be moving through a weak patch right now. This is completely beyond anyone's prediction, since we have no good idea how charge is fed out into our arm from the core. We would have to map this entire area of the galaxy and its motion, as well as mapping likely charge paths from here to the core. Until we do that, we won't have any chance of understanding the long period cycles of Solar activity. 

That said, I do agree with these experts in one way: I see no sign of a second Maunder Minimum. A second Dalton Minimum, maybe, but not a Maunder Minimum. We have been in a sort of Dalton Minimum since 2007, but I think we are now in the worst part of it. Since Cycle 25 will be better, not worse than, Cycle 24, the current Grand Minimum may not be as bad as the Dalton Minimum. Let us hope not. 

If you want to really understand why you felt bad in 2009 and feel bad now, you may want to study neutron charts instead of sunspot charts. They give you a different zero point. 

That lower chart is sort of like the sunspot charts, but upside down. But seen like this, you can see how the low points on the sunspot charts are different, because they are now high points with different elevations. The higher the red line goes, the worse you feel. This is why you may not have noticed anything back in 1997: the line was only at 5 on the scale. But in 2009 and now it is nearer 10: twice as bad. You miss this fact on the sunspot charts, because the number of sunspots can't go below zero. You have no way to measure low points against one another. But here you get a better feel for the differences. 

It's funny, I remember feeling weak in 2009, but only recently did I understand why. The chart above tells us why. But it still fails to tell us why we feel even worse now than in 2009. As I said above, I think it has to do with total charge densities in the ambient field. And where do we find that data? Well, Solar Flux at the Earth may be the best place. If we compare March 2009 to March 2018, we find a lower flux in the latter. In March 2009, it was at about 69.5, compared to 67.6 in March 2018. In March of 2019 flux averaged 71.6, which is why you may have felt somewhat better then. In April it dropped back down considerably, and is now at 67.5. For comparison, we saw it hit 193 in the summer of 2003. It hit 201 in July 2014. It hit 216 in December 2014. Did things seem better in 2014? Now you know why. 

But as bad as things are right now, they aren't as bad as you are told by the mainstream. You don't have to get through two more years of this, you only have to get through a few more months. Neptune stops being square to Jupiter after June 16, at which time Saturn moving into line will start being felt more strongly. Saturn will then be about a year and a half from alignment with Jupiter, or about 28 degrees.** 

So what causes these smaller fluctuations in the Cycle, like the fall-off we just experienced from March to April of this year? Without doing all the angles and math, my guess is it is the influence of inner planets like Mercury and Venus, who get into cross alignments with the bigger planets for shorter periods of time, as in the x-patterns we saw in my 2014 paper. This creates spin augmentations or cancellations on meeting photon streams, increasing or decreasing the magnetism in that line. 

http://milesmathis.com/solen.pdf

*They measure from the Earth, messing up all the angles, but they are still nearer being correct than the astronomers, which is amusing to me. 

**As before, I am having trouble finding data for planetary alignments. The only thing available are astrology charts, so I am having to do all this in my head. Since I don't know astrology charts, I am having trouble even reading those charts, in order to get what I want from them. They are another mindstir, of course, since they refuse to put the Sun in the middle of the circle, where it actually exists. If anybody has any help here, it would be appreciated.