Saturday, March 11, 2023

Part 4 Sandworm : A New Era of Cyberwar ... Warnings ... Fancy Bear ...FSociety...Poligon

I am a bit surprised at the lack of interest in this work. Beyond Greenberg being a shill for American/Israeli intelligence, just the time frame in which the work is set should get curious minds to take a deeper look. Let's get real folks and talk about the American involvement in the USSR's economic implosion. Very naive to think that there would never be any retaliation on Russia's part for Project Hammer. 

Sandworm
A New Era of Cyberwar
by Andy Greenberg
15 
WARNINGS 
In late 2015, half a decade after Stuxnet opened a Pandora’s box of digital threats to the physical world, the first monster had finally emerged from it. That monster was Sandworm. 

The Christmas blackout attack on Ukraine made clear that Russia’s hackers were indeed waging cyber war—perhaps the first true, wide scale cyber war in history. They had crossed the same line as Stuxnet’s creators, from digital hacking to tangible sabotage. And they had also crossed a line from military to civilian, combining the unrestricted hybrid-warfare tactics of Estonia and Georgia with vastly more sophisticated and dangerous hacking techniques. 

But even in late January 2016, only a handful of people in the world were aware of that ongoing threat. Two of them were Mike Assante and Rob Lee. When Assante had returned from the U.S. delegation’s fact-finding trip to Ukraine, he couldn’t share what he’d learned with Lee, since the agencies involved had put a firewall around the information as “for official use only.” But Lee, working from the network logs his Ukrainian contacts had shared with him and other forensic evidence, had already pieced together the anatomy of an extraordinary, multipart intrusion: BlackEnergy, KillDisk, rewritten firmware to lock out defenders, the telephone DDoS attack, disabling on-site electrical backups, and finally the phantom mouse attack that had hijacked the controls of the utility operators. 

There was nothing to stop Sandworm from attacking again. Lee and Assante agreed they had played the government’s bureaucratic games long enough. It was time to publish a full report and warn the world. 

But as Lee and Assante assembled their findings, they learned that the White House was still insisting on keeping the details of Ukraine’s blackout out of the public eye until the Department of Homeland Security’s Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Readiness Team, or ICS-CERT, could publish a warning to electric utilities. When that report finally came in late February—two months after Sandworm’s attack—it included a statement that left Lee furious: “Public reports indicate that the BlackEnergy (BE) malware was discovered on the companies’ computer networks, however it is important to note that the role of BE in this event remains unknown pending further technical analysis.” 

Lee and Assante knew perfectly well how BlackEnergy had been used in the attack: It was the remote-access Trojan planted on victim machines that had begun the long, devious chain of intrusions, leading up to the hackers opening the utilities’ circuit breakers. 

Lee saw that ICS-CERT statement as practically a cover-up. By questioning BlackEnergy’s role in the attack, or even its existence on the utilities’ network, the DHS was obscuring a key fact: that the hackers who’d planted that malware had used the same tool to target American utilities just a year earlier—that Americans, too, were at risk. 

“The message was: ‘This doesn’t map to us; this is a Ukrainian thing,’ ” says Lee. “They misled the entire community.” 
■ 
Over the next weeks, Lee says he protested in meetings and phone calls with contacts in the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Energy, the NSA, and even the CIA, arguing that the White House and CERT were downplaying a serious, unprecedented new hacker threat that loomed over not just Ukraine but western Europe and the United States. He went so far as to publish an angry blog post on the SANS website. The gist of that entry, as Lee summarizes it today, was this: “This is bullshit. People need to know.” The actual text is lost to history; Assante asked Lee to delete the post out of political discretion. 

Meanwhile, Lee and Assante fought with the White House for weeks over what they could publicly reveal about the blackout attacks as White House officials insisted on one revision after another to remove details they considered classified. After a month, the SANS researchers resorted to publishing their report through the Electricity Information Sharing and Analysis Center, or E-ISAC, a part of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation that answered to Congress, not the executive branch. The Obama administration had objected to the release until the last minute. 

Even then, through that spring, Lee says he found himself combating misinformed or Pollyannaish government officials who had told energy utilities the Ukrainian attacks couldn’t have occurred in the United States. Representatives from the Department of Energy and NERC had comforted grid operators that the Ukrainians had used pirated software, had left their networks unsecured, and hadn’t even run antivirus software. None of that was true, according to Lee and Assante. 

But above all, Lee argued that the U.S. government had made an even greater, irreparable mistake: not simply being slow to warn the public and potential targets about Sandworm, or downplaying its dangers, but failing to send a message to Sandworm itself—or anyone else who might follow its path. 

For years, since the first warnings of cyberwar in the late 1990s, hacker-induced blackouts had been the nightmare scenario that kept generals, grid operators, and security wonks awake at night. They had imagined and war-gamed military cyberattacks on the power grid for decades. Even President Clinton had spoken about the need to be prepared for that most fundamental form of digital sabotage, nearly fifteen years before Ukraine’s blackout. 

Now, as Lee saw it, the moment had finally come, and the U.S. government had done little more than sweep the incident under the rug. Perhaps most dangerous of all, it hadn’t issued a single public statement condemning the attack. “We talk and talk and talk about this red line for years, and then, when someone crosses it, we say nothing,” Lee said. “Someone in government needed to stand up and say a cyberattack on civilian infrastructure is something we won’t stand for.” 

In fact, just a year before, the federal government had offered exactly the sort of response Lee had called for, though for a less novel form of attack. In December 2014, North Korean hackers posing as a hacktivist group known as the Guardians of Peace revealed they had broken into the servers of Sony Pictures in retaliation for its comedy film The Interview, which depicted the assassination of the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The intruders destroyed the contents of thousands of computers and stole reams of confidential information that they later leaked onto the web, trickling the files out for weeks, including four unreleased feature films. 

In the weeks following Sony’s breach, the FBI issued a public statement swiftly identifying North Korea as the culprit, cutting through its hacktivism false flag. The FBI director, James Comey, went so far as to give a public speech laying out the evidence for North Korea’s involvement, including how the hackers had failed on multiple occasions to use proxy computers as they’d intended to, and thus revealed IP addresses linked to their previous hacking operations— bread crumbs that led back to the Kim regime. President Obama himself spoke about the attack in a White House press conference, warning the world that the United States wouldn’t tolerate North Korea’s digital aggression. 

“They caused a lot of damage, and we will respond. We will respond proportionally, and we’ll respond in a place and time and manner that we choose,” President Obama said. (The exact nature of that response has never been confirmed, but North Korea did experience a nationwide internet outage just days later, and the administration announced new financial sanctions against the Kim regime the next month.) 

“This points to the need for us to work with the international community,” Obama continued, “to start setting up some very clear rules of the road in terms of how the internet and cyber operates.” 

And yet a year later, when Russian hackers had launched a far broader and more dangerous attack deep inside civil infrastructure, no government official offered statements about proportional responses or international “rules of the road.” No U.S. agency even named Russia as the offender, despite the numerous clues available to any researcher who looked. The Obama administration was virtually silent. 

America and the world had lost a once-in-history chance, Lee argues, to definitively establish a set of norms to protect civilians in a new age of cyberwar. “It was a missed opportunity,” he says. “If you say you won’t allow something and then it happens and there’s crickets, you’re effectively condoning it.” 
■ 
In fact, Obama’s most senior cybersecurity-focused official never doubted the gravity of Sandworm’s blackout attack. In late January, not long after the delegation to Ukraine had flown back to Washington, J. Michael Daniel sat in a highly secured situation room in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, just beyond the grounds of the West Wing, receiving a briefing from Department of Homeland Security officials on the results of that fact-finding trip. Daniel, a soft spoken career civil servant with a kind, nervous face and slightly thinning hair, listened carefully. Then he walked back down the hall to his office to meet with his own staff, who would assemble a report for the national security advisor and, in turn, President Obama. 

As he spoke with the White House aides about what the president should know, Daniel found himself marveling aloud at the brazenness of the attackers. “We’ve clearly crossed the Rubicon,” he remembers saying, echoing Michael Hayden’s comments on Stuxnet three years earlier. “This is something new.” 

Daniel had prided himself on the Obama administration’s work to set clear boundaries on state-sponsored hacker provocations. Working together with Obama administration officials from the Department of Justice to the Pentagon to the Departments of State and Commerce, his team had answered misbehavior by foreign hackers with rigorous retaliation. In 2014, for instance, after Chinese cyberspies had for years pillaged American intellectual property, the Obama Justice Department had identified and levied criminal charges against five members of a Chinese People’s Liberation Army hacking unit by name. The next year, the State Department threatened China with sanctions if the economic espionage continued. China’s president, Xi Jinping, more or less capitulated, signing an agreement that neither country would hack the other’s private sector targets. Security companies such as CrowdStrike and FireEye reported an almost immediate drop-off in Chinese intrusions—90 percent according to CrowdStrike—an unprecedented victory for cybersecurity diplomacy. 

North Korea’s Sony attack had received almost as forceful a response. And the administration would later indict a group of Iranian state hackers, too, accusing them of DDoS attacks against American banks and of probing the computer systems of a U.S. dam in upstate New York. (The Bowman Avenue Dam they’d targeted was only about twenty feet tall. The hackers might have intended to hit the far larger and more critical Bowman Dam in Oregon.) The message of all those hard-line disciplinary actions was this: No foreign state gets away with hacking American companies or digitally disrupting U.S. infrastructure. 

Then came an actual, full-blown act of cyberwar against Ukraine, and all the same diplomats and security officials went silent. Why? 

Michael Daniel’s immediate train of thought when he first learned of the blackout may offer an answer: When a phone call from the DHS alerted him to Sandworm’s attack the day after Christmas, his first reaction was alarm. “The thing we’ve been worried about has actually happened,” he thought. But moments later, he remembers having a very different feeling: “My second reaction was a little bit of relief that it wasn’t domestic to the U.S.” 

Daniel was deeply troubled by the notion that Russian hackers were willing to attack civilian infrastructure. Worse, these seemed to be the same hackers who’d been probing U.S. infrastructure only a year earlier. He had no illusions that the techniques used in the blackout attacks were limited to Ukrainian targets. “We have those systems in the United States, and we can’t claim those systems to be any more secure than what Ukraine is running,” he later told me. In fact, the greater automation in the American grid might mean that it provided even more points of attack. “We were equally if not more vulnerable.” (By the time the U.S. delegation had returned from Ukraine, Daniel also had few doubts that the Russian government was indeed behind the attacks. “If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…,” he said.) 

But even so, when Sandworm had finally pulled the trigger, it had carried out its attack in Ukraine, four thousand miles away from U.S. borders. This was the source of Daniel’s relief: Ukraine was not America. It wasn’t even a member of NATO. As a result, for the U.S. government, it was officially someone else’s problem.

16 
FANCY BEAR 
Perhaps the Obama administration, given enough time, would have gotten around to calling out Sandworm acts of cyberwar and making an example of the attackers with speeches, indictments, or sanctions. But by June 2016, its attention had been entirely hijacked by another hacker provocation—one that hit far closer to home. 

On June 14, The Washington Post revealed that the Democratic National Committee had been penetrated for months by not one but two teams of state-sponsored Russian hackers. The security firm CrowdStrike, which the DNC had brought in to analyze its breach two months earlier, published a blog post identifying the pair of intrusion crews inside the Democrats’ network as Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear, teams it had watched carry out spying campaigns for years, hitting everyone from the U.S. State Department and the White House to aerospace and defense contractors. 

Based on past years of detective work, Crowd Strike tied Fancy Bear to the Russian military intelligence agency known as the GRU. Cozy Bear, it would later be revealed, worked within Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence agency. (The two “bear” names derived from Crowd Strike’s system of labeling hacker teams with different animals based on their country of origin—bears for Russia, pandas for China, tigers for India, and so on.) “Both adversaries engage in extensive political and economic espionage for the benefit of the government of the Russian Federation and are believed to be closely linked to the Russian government’s powerful and highly capable intelligence services,” Crowd Strike’s analysis read. 

In other words, these were teams that seemed to be focused on silent cyberespionage of the kind Russia had carried out since the days of Moonlight Maze, not the louder, more disruptive cyber war tactics Sandworm had only just begun to demonstrate. (CrowdStrike had in fact tracked Sandworms attacks too. Its own code name for the group was Voodoo Bear.) 

But while the DNC hack wasn’t an act of disruptive cyberwar, neither would it prove to be an ordinary espionage operation. Just twenty-four hours after news of the breach broke, a figure calling himself Guccifer 2.0 appeared on Twitter, posting links to a blog that introduced him to the world. The post was titled “DNC Servers Hacked by a Lone Hacker.” 

“Worldwide known cyber security company CrowdStrike announced that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) servers had been hacked by ‘sophisticated’ hacker groups,” Guccifer 2.0 wrote glibly. “I’m very pleased the company appreciated my skills so highly))) But in fact, it was easy, very easy.” 

What came next in the post shocked the world: a sample of actual stolen documents from the DNC’s servers. They included a file of opposition research on the Republican presidential front-runner, Donald Trump, policy documents, and a list of donors by name and amount. “The main part of the papers, thousands of files and mails, I gave to WikiLeaks. They will publish them soon,” Guccifer 2.0 wrote. “Fuck the Illuminati and their conspiracies!!!!!!!!!” 

That “Illuminati” reference and Guccifer 2.0’s name were meant to convey a kind of rogue hacktivist, stealing and leaking the documents of the powerful to upend the corrupt social order. The original Guccifer had been a Romanian amateur hacker named Marcel Lehel Lazăr who had broken into the email accounts of high-profile figures like Colin Powell, the Rockefeller family, and the sister of former president George W. Bush. 

Guccifer 2.0 took on the persona of a cocky eastern European cyberpunk who idolized figures like the original Guccifer, Edward Snowden, and Julian Assange. “Personally I think that I’m among the best hackers in the world,” he would write in a FAQ. 

When CrowdStrike maintained that Guccifer 2.0 was a thin disguise meant to obscure the Russian state hackers behind the DNC intrusion, Guccifer 2.0 shot back with vague denials. “They just fucked up! They can prove nothing!” he wrote. “All I hear is blah-blah-blah, unfounded theories and somebody’s estimates.” 

But in reality, the Russians’ mask almost immediately showed cracks. A former staffer for the British intelligence service GCHQ, Matt Tait, found that the very first document the Russians released, the Trump opposition file, contained Russian-language formatting-error messages. Moreover, the metadata from the file showed that it had been opened on a computer with the username “Feliks Dzerzhinsky.” That clue was almost comically revealing: Dzerzhinsky was the founder of the Soviet secret police, whose bronze statue had once stood in front of the KGB headquarters. 

When the tech news site Motherboard reached out to Guccifer 2.0 via Twitter and the hacker agreed to an instant-message interview, Motherboard’s reporter Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai cleverly threw him off guard with a series of questions in English, Romanian, and Russian. Guccifer 2.0 answered those questions in broken English and Romanian and protested that he couldn’t understand the Russian. Franceschi-Bicchierai then showed the chat logs to Romanians and language experts who pointed out small linguistic clues that Guccifer wrote like a Russian and appeared to be pulling his Romanian answers from Google Translate. The Russian hackers seemingly hadn’t even bothered to recruit a real Romanian for their cover story. 
■ 
The flimsiness of the Guccifer 2.0 lie hardly mattered. The hackers sent the news site Gawker the Trump opposition research document, and it published a story on the file that received half a million clicks, robbing the Democrats of the ability to time the release of their Trump dirt. Soon, as promised, WikiLeaks began to publish a steady trickle of the hackers’ stolen data, too; after all, Julian Assange’s secret-spilling group had never been very particular about whether its “leaks” came from whistle-blowers or hackers. 

The documents, now with WikiLeaks’ stamp of credibility, began to be picked up by news outlets including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, Politico, BuzzFeed, and The Intercept. The revelations were very real: It turned out the DNC had secretly favored the candidate Hillary Clinton over her opponent Bernie Sanders as the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, despite the committee’s purported role as a neutral arbiter for the party. DNC officials had furtively discussed how to discredit Sanders, including staging public confrontations about his religious beliefs and an incident in which his campaign’s staff allegedly accessed the Clinton campaign’s voter data. 

The DNC chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, was hit the hardest. The stolen emails revealed that she had privately written that Sanders’s campaign manager was a “damn liar” and that Sanders “isn’t going to be president.” A little over a month after the hacked emails first began to appear, she resigned. 

But the hackers weren’t content to rely on WikiLeaks, nor was the DNC their only victim. Over the next several months, Guccifer 2.0’s stolen DNC emails also began to appear on a new site called DCLeaks, along with emails stolen from other targets ranging from Republican and Democratic lawmakers to General Philip Breedlove, an air force official who had pushed for a more aggressive response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite DCLeaks’ attempt to appear as another whistle-blowing “leak” site, the security firm ThreatConnect quickly identified it as a cover for Russia’s Fancy Bear hackers, based on overlapping target data with known Fancy Bear intrusion operations and clues in DCLeaks’ registration data. 

If anyone still doubted that Fancy Bear was behind the serial data dumps, that uncertainty lifted in September 2016, when the group launched a new attack on the World Anti-Doping Agency. Putin’s government had been furious at the agency’s recommendation that all Russian athletes be banned from that year’s Summer Olympics after multiple athletic teams from the country were found to be part of widespread programs of performance-enhancing drug use. In retaliation, Fancy Bear published the stolen medical records of the tennis stars Venus and Serena Williams and the gymnast Simone Biles, showing they too had used medications that could be interpreted —at a stretch—as offering athletic advantages. This time, in a blatant mockery of critics, the leaks were published on Fancy bears.net, a website covered with clip art and animated GIFs of bears. 

Fancy Bear had emerged as brash practitioners of what intelligence analysts call “influence operations.” More specifically, they were using an old Russian intelligence practice known as kompromat: the tradition, stretching back to Soviet times, of obtaining compromising information about political opponents and using it to leverage public opinion with tactical leaks and smears. 

Sandworm’s hackers were stealthy, professional saboteurs. Fancy Bear, by contrast, seemed to be shameless, profane propagandists. And now, in the service of Vladimir Putin, they were tasked with helping Donald Trump to win the presidency. 

The 2016 presidential race wasn’t Fancy Bear’s first time using its skills to influence elections. In May 2017, a group of security researchers at the University of Toronto called the Citizen Lab would find forensic evidence that the group was also behind CyberBerkut, the pro-Putin hacktivist group that had in 2014 hacked Ukraine’s Central Election Commission. Like Guccifer 2.0 and DCLeaks, CyberBerkut was just another cover story. 

Most of the group’s techniques were simple. Next to an operation like Sandworm’s 2015 Christmas blackout, they were practically primitive. But one of Fancy Bear’s crudest tactics turned out to be its most effective of all: a rudimentary spoofed log-in page. 

On October 7, WikiLeaks began publishing a new series of leaks, this time stolen directly from the email account of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair, John Podesta. The previous March, Podesta had fallen prey to a basic phishing email, directing him to a fake Gmail site that asked for his username and password, which he handed over. The site, of course, was a Fancy Bear trap. 

WikiLeaks would trickle out its resulting stash of Clinton campaign kompromat for weeks to come. The revelations included eighty pages of closely guarded speeches Clinton had given to private Wall Street audiences. One included a reference to politicians’ need to have separate “public” and “private” positions, which her critics interpreted as an admission of deception. Another seemed to call for “open borders,” enraging immigration hard-liners. The daily media bombs would keep the campaign off balance through its final days.*

The Podesta hack also eradicated any last doubts about Fancy Bear’s role: The security firm Secureworks found the link to the fake Gmail site that had tricked Podesta was created with an account on the URL-shortening service Bitly that had also been used to target hundreds of other Fancy Bear victims, from Ukrainian officials to Russia-focused academics and journalists. 

Trump, of course, brushed aside the evidence of Russia’s involvement and reveled in the flood of scandals. “I love WikiLeaks!” he declared at one rally. At another point, he quipped that he hoped the Russian hackers had also breached the controversial private email server Clinton had set up in her home, and asked the hackers to release thousands more of her emails. But for the most part, Trump nihilistically denied that those leaks had been enabled by the Kremlin, instead suggesting that the hackers might just as easily be Chinese or a “400-pound” loner or that the Democrats had hacked themselves. Trump’s obfuscation served Fancy Bear well: Even months later, in December 2016, only about a third of Americans believed Russia had meddled in the U.S. election, while 44 percent doubted it, and a quarter were unsure.*2 

Whether the Kremlin actually expected to swing the 2016 race with its influence operation has never been clear. Putin, whose hatred of Hillary Clinton since her days as secretary of state under Obama could barely be concealed, might have simply wished to saddle her presidency with crippling political baggage. Russian officials, of course, repeatedly denied any hand in the attacks. But regardless of what outcome they imagined, they had successfully thrown the core of American democracy into chaos. 

When I met up with Crowd Strike’s chief technology officer, Dmitri Alperovitch, at a park in Manhattan’s financial district in October 2016, with the election just weeks away, he seemed to almost grudgingly admire the effectiveness of the hackers whose operation his firm had first uncovered four months earlier. 

“I think they’ve gotten medals already,” he said ruefully. “They’ve had success beyond their wildest dreams.” 

In fact, Fancy Bear’s real moment of glory came three weeks later: Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. 
■ 
When J. Michael Daniel had become Obama’s most senior official concerned solely with cybersecurity in 2012, one of his first big moves had been to fly to Moscow in 2013 to finalize a “cyber hotline.” Using a protocol first established to prevent nuclear Armageddon half a century earlier, the hotline was intended to serve as an open channel between the White House and the Kremlin for sending messages about cyber attacks, a kind of safety valve to avoid misunderstandings that might lead to unnecessary escalation and war. Daniel describes the setup as a “glorified, dedicated email system.” 

On October 7, 2016, Daniel used that hotline for the first and only time in his tenure, to send a message to Putin in response to Russia’s blatant election interference. He paraphrases the message: “We know that you are carrying out these kinds of activities. And stop. Knock it off.” The same day, the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a public statement that U.S. intelligence agencies had officially come to a consensus that the Russian government was the source of the stolen emails, as cybersecurity researchers had been pointing out for four months.[Sorry Seth Rich is the correct answer dc ] 

Eventually, in the waning days of Obama’s presidency, the administration would escalate its response to include new economic sanctions against Russian intelligence agencies as punishment for their election hacking, effectively preventing them from doing any business with American citizens and companies. The order would eject thirty-five Russian diplomats from the United States and seize control of two Russian government compounds on U.S. soil. James Lewis, a cybersecurity-focused fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, would describe the reaction as “the biggest retaliatory move against Russian espionage since the Cold War.” 

But on the subject of Russia’s blackout attacks, the hotline from the White House to the Kremlin remained silent. Sandworm had been sent an implicit signal. It could now proceed with impunity. 

*1 The most powerful effect of those leaks may have been to distract from a shocking video released by The Washington Post on October 7, in which Trump bragged on the set of the TV show Access Hollywood that he had grabbed women’s genitals without their consent. WikiLeaks published the first Podesta leaks just hours after that tape surfaced. 
*2 When this book went to press, the extent of Trump’s collaboration with the Russian government in its election interference remained unclear. But the investigation of independent counsel Robert Mueller had revealed that multiple members of Trump’s staff as well as Donald Trump Jr. had met with Kremlin officials and other Russian nationals who had offered compromising information on Clinton, which Trump Jr. was eager to accept. As a candidate, Trump had also weakened the Republican Party position on defending Ukraine from Russia, all while pursuing a billion-dollar deal to establish a Trump Tower in Moscow.

17 
FSOCIETY 
On election night, Michael Matonis had gone to bed early. He’d seen the increasing likelihood of Trump’s win. But he’d chosen, rather than biting his nails all evening, to just assume Clinton would prevail as expected and sleep through the drama until then. 

At 5:00 a.m., he was woken up by the shortwave radio next to his bed, immediately heard the news, and emitted a long, heartfelt moan of profanity. 

Matonis, a twenty-seven-year-old security researcher with a mass of curly black hair, lived at the time in Albany, New York, but had been planning a party that night in his hometown of Brooklyn—not so much to celebrate Clinton’s victory as to herald an end to seeing Trump’s face on television every day. After learning the shocking election results, Matonis and his friends quickly reconceived the party as a kind of emotional support group. So he nonetheless boarded an Amtrak train south, then made his way from Penn Station through a New York City that was visibly grieving, with signs of protest and condolences posted on subway platforms and in shop windows. 

When he arrived in the city, Matonis had planned to wander around Williamsburg and find some good Turkish or Brazilian food. But he soon found that he was too depressed to leave his Airbnb. So instead, despite officially being on vacation, he opened his laptop to distract himself with work. 

Matonis was a member of the team of researchers that reported to John Hultquist, who by then had become director of cyber espionage analysis at FireEye, the security firm that had acquired iSight earlier in 2016. As part of his daily hunting, Matonis had created his own software tools that automatically scanned malware feeds like VirusTotal for interesting tidbits that might serve as footprints of state-sponsored hackers—what he calls “cyber gold panning.” 

Early that morning, one of his filter tools had pinged him with results that he’d been too distracted to read. Now he dug into its origin: Someone had uploaded to VirusTotal a piece of malicious code that used a Microsoft Office script to install itself on the victim’s machine, just as BlackEnergy had done in the late 2015 attacks. The new malware appeared to be a fresh backdoor for remote access to victim machines, one that curiously used the encrypted instant messaging software Telegram to communicate with its command-and control servers. But Matonis had tracked the BlackEnergy attacks closely enough to see that they shared a similar encoding. 

The backdoor program was packaged in a Word document written in Cyrillic characters. When Matonis put the file through Google Translate, he found that it was a list of prices of storage hardware and servers written in Ukrainian, what appeared to be bait for Ukrainian IT systems administrators. “I could think of only one group that would do this thing, in this particular way,” he says. 

Since the Ukrainian blackouts nearly a year earlier, Sandworm had gone entirely silent. After its grid-hacking tour de force, it seemed as if the group might even have disappeared. Aside from a few die-hard obsessives including Matonis, his boss, Hultquist, and Rob Lee, much of the American security community’s attention to Russian hacking had shifted almost entirely to Fancy Bear’s election meddling. 

Now Matonis was seeing the first sign that Russia’s blackout hackers had surfaced again. “Holy shit,” Matonis thought to himself as he sat at the kitchen table of his Brooklyn rental. “I think I’ve found Sandworm version two.” 
■ 
By August 2016, eight months after the first Christmas blackout, Yasinsky had left his job at StarLightMedia. It wasn’t enough, he decided, to defend a single company from an onslaught that seemed to be targeting every stratum of Ukrainian society. Despite Sandworm’s silence since the blackout, Yasinsky knew that the group spent long months advancing its intrusions and that the next wave of attacks was likely already in motion. He needed a more holistic view of the hackers’ work, and Ukraine needed a more coherent response to the brazen, callous organization of attackers that Sandworm was becoming. “The light side remains divided,” he told me of the balkanized reaction to the hackers among their victims. “The dark side is united.” 

So Yasinsky took a position as the head of research and forensics for a Kiev firm called Information Systems Security Partners, or ISSP. The company was hardly a big name in the security industry. But Yasinsky joined with the intention of using his position to make ISSP the go-to first responder for victims of Ukraine’s digital siege. 

Not long after he switched jobs, as if on cue, the country came under another, even broader, more punishing wave of attacks. Starting in December, a month after FireEye’s Michael Matonis and other researchers around the world were seeing the first signs of Sandworm’s reemergence, Yasinsky began to learn of other Ukrainian agencies and infrastructure companies targeted by the same destructive hackers as in 2015. Those victims would eventually include Ukraine’s pension fund, Treasury, seaport authority, and Ministries of Infrastructure, Defense, and Finance. In each case, as in the year before, the attacks culminated with a KillDisk-style detonation on the target’s hard drives. 

The hackers again hit Ukraine’s railway company, Ukrzaliznytsia, this time knocking out its online booking system for days, right in the midst of the holiday travel season. In the case of the Finance Ministry, the logic bomb deleted terabytes of data, destroying the contents of 80 percent of the agency’s computers, deleting its draft of the national budget for the next year, and leaving its network entirely off-line for the next two weeks. 

In other words, the hackers’ new winter onslaught matched and exceeded the previous year’s in both its scale and the calculated pain of its targeting. But as security researchers delved into the companies’ logs in those first weeks of December, they could see their tormentors were trying out new forms of deception, too. In one round of attacks, for instance, the hackers had altered their KillDisk code to not merely cripple victims’ machines but also to display a haunting image on their screens. 

The picture—first published by researchers at the Slovakian security firm ESET, who were also closely tracking the second wave of Ukrainian attacks—wasn’t merely a file planted on the victims’ computers. Instead, with a kind of hacker flourish, it had been painstakingly programmed into the malware to be drawn by Windows’s graphics interface every time the code ran. The resulting image was a neon-green and black low-resolution mustachioed mask, over a background of multicolored ones and zeros. Above and below the mask were the words “WE ARE FSOCIETY” and “JOIN US.” 

The hackers had co-opted the symbology of the fictional anarchist hackers in the television show Mr. Robot, perhaps to create a veneer of freewheeling, grassroots nihilism over what was clearly a well organized, state-sponsored disruption campaign. (With the benefit of hindsight, they might have also been revealing something about their intentions: In Mr. Robot, FSociety’s hackers permanently destroy the records of a massive banking conglomerate, erasing the debt of thousands of people and throwing the world economy into chaos—a story line that, within a year, would feel prescient.) 

In the second round of attacks, the hackers switched up their ruse: Instead of a hacktivist front, they adopted a cybercriminal one, plastering victims’ corrupted machines with a ransom message demanding a Bitcoin payment: “We are sorry, but the encryption of your data has been successfully completed, so you can lose your data or pay 222 btc.” 

Sandworm seemed to have adapted its cover story to mimic an increasingly trendy tactic among hacker profiteers: Rather than try to steal credit cards or other data that had to be resold to be monetized, cybercriminals had discovered they could extort money directly from victims by encrypting their hard drives and demanding payment to unlock them. Only once the victims forked over the ransom—within a prescribed time limit—would the extortionists send a key to decrypt their data. Some ransomware schemes had become so professional that they even included live customer support, increasing the likelihood of payment by reassuring victims that they would actually receive their data back. 

But most of those moneymaking schemes, as cruel as they were, asked for just a few hundred or thousand dollars from victims. This one demanded, at late 2016 Bitcoin exchange rates, more than $150,000. No one, it seemed, was foolish enough to pay. And ESET’s researchers found that even if they had, there was no decryption mechanism in the malware. Instead, the ransom demand only added another layer of confusion to the same KillDisk-style data destruction that Sandworm had been carrying out since the year before. 

Yasinsky could see that the hackers were not only evolving but experimenting. After a year underground, they had reemerged more dangerous and deceptive than ever. Ukraine’s cyberwar was ramping up. And then, on a Saturday night two weeks into that growing plague, not long after Yasinsky sat down on the couch of his Kiev apartment to watch the movie Snowden with his family, Sandworm put its full capabilities on display. 
■ 
On December 17, 2016, a young engineer named Oleg Zaychenko was four hours into his twelve-hour night shift at Ukrenergo’s transmission station just north of Kiev’s city limits. He sat in an old Soviet-era control room, its walls covered in beige and red floor-to-ceiling analog control panels. The station’s tabby cat, Aza, was out hunting; all that kept Zaychenko company was a television in the corner playing pop music videos. 

He was filling out a paper-and-pencil log, documenting another uneventful Saturday evening, when the station’s alarm suddenly sounded, a deafening continuous ringing. To his right, Zaychenko saw that two of the lights indicating the state of the transmission system’s circuits had switched from red to green—in the counterintuitive, universal language of electrical engineers, a sign that they had turned off. 

The technician picked up the black desk phone to his left and called an operator at Ukrenergo’s headquarters to alert him to the routine mishap. As he did, another light turned green. Then another. Zaychenko’s adrenaline began to kick in. While he hurriedly explained the situation to the remote operator, the lights kept flipping: red to green, red to green. Eight, then ten, then twelve. 

As the crisis escalated, the operator on the phone ordered Zaychenko to run outside and check the equipment for physical damage. At that moment, the twentieth and final circuit switched off, and the lights in the control room went out, along with the computer and TV. Zaychenko was already throwing a coat over his blue-and yellow uniform and sprinting for the door. 

Ukrenergo’s northern Kiev transmission station is normally a vast, buzzing jungle of electrical equipment stretching over twenty acres, the size of more than a dozen football fields. But as Zaychenko came out of the building into the freezing night air, the atmosphere was eerier than ever before: The three tank-sized transformers arrayed alongside the building, responsible for about a fifth of the capital’s electrical capacity, had gone entirely silent. 

Until then, Zaychenko had been mechanically ticking through an emergency mental checklist. As he ran past the paralyzed machines, the thought entered his mind for the first time: The blackout hackers had struck again. 

18 
POLYGON 
This time the attack had moved up the circulatory system of Ukraine’s grid. Instead of taking down the distribution substations that branch off into capillaries of power lines, the saboteurs had hit an artery. That single northern Kiev transmission station carried two hundred megawatts, more total electric load than all the fifty-plus distribution stations knocked out in the 2015 attack combined. 

Luckily, the system was down for just an hour—hardly long enough for pipes to freeze or for locals to start panicking—before Ukrenergo’s engineers began manually closing circuits and bringing everything back online. Even so, when that hour-long midnight blackout enveloped Yasinsky’s home in northern Kiev, it unnerved him like no cyberattack he’d ever experienced in his years as a security professional. 

Yasinsky told me he’s always tried to maintain a dispassionate perspective on the intruders who were ransacking his country. He seeks to avoid entirely, for instance, the topic of the attackers’ identities, arguing that their names or nationalities don’t figure into the analysis of their intrusions or strategies for defending against them. (That refusal to wade into questions of attribution is common in the cybersecurity industry. But Yasinsky takes it to an extreme, going so far as to wag his finger with a mock-scolding grin when I refer to the attackers as Russian.) 

Yasinsky has always preferred to see his job as a game of chess, logically analyzing the adversary’s moves on an abstract plane free from any personal psychology. Become too emotionally invested, he argued, let your thinking be corrupted by your own anger or obsession or self-interest, and you begin to make mistakes. “You need a cold, clear mind,” Yasinsky said. “If you want to play well, you can’t afford to hate your opponent.” 

But when the blackout extended to his own home, he admitted that it crossed a new boundary. It was “like being robbed,” he told me. “It was a kind of violation, a moment when you realize your own private space is just an illusion.” 

Within twenty-four hours of the blackout, Ukrenergo staffers had publicly confirmed that it had indeed been caused by another cyber attack, just as Yasinsky had immediately suspected. Ukrenergo and the SBU—the Ukrainian security service that partly functions as the country’s equivalent of the NSA—determined that Ukraine would handle the response itself. This time, there would be no American delegation. And so naturally, when ISSP called up Ukrenergo and offered its services, the job was handed to Yasinsky. 
■ 
In early 2017, at a meeting in Ukrenergo’s central Kiev headquarters, the company gave ISSP a hard drive filled with the terabytes of log files that Yasinsky would need to begin his forensic analysis. Just as he had at StarLightMedia, he pored over the logs for weeks, combing them for any anomaly that might reveal the traces of hackers who had sought at every point in their intrusion to perfectly mimic the normal behavior of the victims they had infiltrated—what Yasinsky calls “finding needles among needles.” 

After tracking the same hackers for more than a year, Yasinsky knew where to find their footprints. By the end of January, ISSP had assembled nearly the entire anatomy of the intrusion. He presented it in a briefing for Ukrenergo’s IT administrators, rolling out in front of them a six-foot-long printed paper timeline of the hackers’ work. Though the company had given him six months of logs, it appeared the hackers had likely obtained their access far earlier: In January 2016, nearly a year before the second blackout, Ukrenergo had discovered an infection of the same BlackEnergy malware that had hit StarLightMedia, TRK, and Boryspil airport. Yasinsky guessed that despite the utility’s cleanup efforts the intruders had maintained a stealthy foothold somewhere inside Ukrenergo’s systems, patiently biding their time. 

To move between computers within Ukrenergo’s network, they had deployed a common hacker tool called Mimikatz, designed to take advantage of a security oversight in older versions of Windows that leaves passwords accessible in a computer’s memory. Mimikatz plucks credentials out of that ephemeral murk so that hackers can use them to gain repeated access to a computer, or to any others that a victim’s account could access on the same network. The hackers had also exploited a more obscure trick, one that allows them to dig through memory when an application unexpectedly crashed, with sensitive credentials lingering in the “crash dump” of data that borked programs leave behind—a bit like grabbing and instantly copying the keys from a stalled car. 

With those stolen credentials, the hackers eventually gained access to a kind of all-seeing database server in Ukrenergo’s network, what’s sometimes known as a “historian.” That database acted as a record keeper for the utility’s operations, collecting data from physical equipment and making it available to the business network. For the intruders, it offered a crucial bridge between the traditional IT side of Ukrenergo’s network and the industrial control system side, including workstations with access to circuit breakers. 

That historian database didn’t merely collect data from the utility’s computers. It also, more dangerously, had the ability to send certain commands to them. As Yasinsky describes it, the hackers hijacked that functionality to turn the database into a “Swiss Army knife,” capable of running any code the hackers chose. Ultimately, that included planting the payload of their attack at the doorstep of Ukrenergo’s actual transmission station equipment and, as in 2015, callously flipping those switches to cut power to hundreds of thousands of people. 

The attackers seemed to have shifted their focus from the 2015 attack, when they had ransacked the three regional power utilities with a broad arsenal of humiliations, attacking everything from the utilities’ own backup generators to their phone systems. Instead, this time they had penetrated directly into the transmission systems with single minded professionalism. “In 2015, they were like a group of brutal street fighters,” says Marina Krotofil, a Ukraine-born German industrial control systems expert who then worked at Honeywell and who advised Yasinsky during ISSP’s analysis. “In 2016, they were ninjas.” 

But the final payload those saboteurs had planted, to Yasinsky, was a kind of black box. He could see that the hackers had, ahead of their midnight strike, installed a collection of dynamic-link library, or .dll files, essentially collections of instructions they could call upon. But industrial control systems are their own arcane discipline within cybersecurity, and Yasinsky, despite his knowledge of the forensics of traditional IT systems, couldn’t interpret the .dll files himself. Krotofil, his friend and go-to industrial control systems expert, had helped to guide him through that side of the Ukrenergo investigation. But thanks to the nondisclosure agreement he’d signed with the utility, he couldn’t share the .dlls with her. 

Yasinsky showed the files to Ukrenergo’s engineers, and they told him that the code included commands written in a particular protocol —a kind of computer vocabulary understood by their circuit breaker equipment. Somehow, those files had triggered the final, disruptive step of the hackers’ blackout operation. Exactly how would remain a mystery for months to come. 
■ 
In the United States, meanwhile, the second Ukrainian blackout resonated momentarily through the cybersecurity community, stealing back a modicum of attention from the frenzy around Russia’s election focused attacks. For the first time in history, as Lee described it to me, a group of hackers had shown it was willing and able to repeatedly attack critical infrastructure. They’d refined their techniques over multiple, evolving assaults. And they’d planted their malware on the U.S. grid once before. 

All of that meant, Lee argued, that American utilities and government officials needed to see Russia’s escalating cyberwar operations not only as Ukraine’s problem but as their own. “The people who understand the U.S. power grid know that it can happen here,” he told me. 

When I’d run that notion by NERC’s chief security officer, Marcus Sachs, in a phone call, he’d downplayed the threat. American power companies have already learned from Ukraine’s victimization, he argued. Sachs pointed to the road show of briefings he and others had performed for U.S. utilities to educate them about the attacks, hammering into them that they need to shore up their basic cybersecurity practices and turn off remote access to their critical systems whenever possible. And for all the sophistication of the Ukraine grid hacks, he pointed out, even they didn’t really constitute a catastrophe; the lights did, after all, come back on. 

“It would be hard to say we’re not vulnerable. Anything connected to something else is vulnerable,” Sachs said. “To make the leap and suggest that the grid is milliseconds away from collapse is irresponsible.” 

But to hackers like Sandworm, Lee countered, the United States could present an even more convenient set of targets. U.S. power firms are more attuned to cybersecurity, but they’re also more automated and modern than those in Ukraine, with more computer-controlled equipment. In other words, they present more of a digital “attack surface” to hackers than some older systems. 

American engineers, he argued, also have less experience with manual recovery from frequent blackouts than a country like Ukraine. Regional utilities in Ukraine, and even Ukrenergo in Kiev, are all far more accustomed to blackouts from the usual equipment failures than American utilities. They have fleets of trucks ready to drive out to substations and manually switch the power back on, as Ukrainian utilities did in 2015 when the hackers first hit them. Not every hyper automated American utility is prepared for that all-hands, on-the-ground manual override. “Taking down the American grid would be harder than Ukraine,” Lee said. “Keeping it down might be easier.” 

As Sandworm’s power and brashness grew, the question remained: Would it ever dare hit the United States the way it had Ukraine? An attack on American utilities, after all, would almost certainly result in immediate, serious retaliation from the U.S. government, even if the same attacks in a regional war of Russian aggression had barely elicited a murmur from U.S. officials. 

Some  cyber security analysts at the time of Sandworm’s second grid attack argued that Russia’s goal was simply to hem in America’s own cyberwar strategy: By turning the lights out in Kiev—and by showing that it’s capable of penetrating the American grid—Moscow had sent a message warning the United States not to try a Stuxnet-style attack on Russia or its allies, such as the Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, whose revolutionary opponents the United States was supporting in the Syrian civil war. 

In that view, it was all a game of deterrence. As one influential pseudonymous hacker and security analyst known as the Grugq had written in a blog post after the second Ukraine blackout, “This expensive light flicking makes more sense when viewed as an influence operation to signal the West that Russia has what the West itself believes are ‘real cyber war cyber weapons.’ 

“Russia has flicked Ukraine’s lights twice now,” he wrote. “There is no reason to run two tests of an offensive operation if the first is successful. They want to make sure the West gets the signal.” 

But Lee, who was involved in plenty of war-game scenarios during his time at the NSA, could imagine Russia striking American utilities as a retaliatory measure if it ever saw itself as backed into a corner—if the United States, say, threatened to interfere with Moscow’s military interests in Ukraine or Syria. “When you deny a state’s ability to project power,” he argued, “it has to lash out.” 

Lee and his ilk, of course, had been war-gaming these nightmares for well over a decade. And as yet, cyber doomsday had never come to U.S. soil. But in the wake of Fancy Bear’s election interference, there seemed to be no limits to Russia’s brazenness. The Kremlin had meddled in the Ukrainian election and faced no real repercussions; then it applied similar tactics to the United States. Russian hackers turned off the power in Ukraine with impunity; the syllogism wasn’t hard to complete. 

For John Hultquist, who had now watched Sandworm’s attacks escalate for more than two years, that next step was clear enough. Three weeks after the 2016 Kiev attack, he wrote a prediction on Twitter and pinned it to his profile for posterity: “I swear, when Sandworm Team finally nails Western critical infrastructure, and folks react like this was a huge surprise, I’m gonna lose it.” 
■ 
On a gray day in March 2017, a taxi dropped me off in a parking lot in front of the headquarters of ISSP in Kiev. The company at the time occupied a low-lying building in an industrial neighborhood of the Ukrainian capital, surrounded by muddy sports fields and crumbling high-rises—a few of the country’s many lingering souvenirs from the Soviet Union. 

When I found Oleksii Yasinsky inside, we sat down in the company’s “Cyber Lab,” a darkened room with a round table that’s covered in the same sort of network maps he’d developed for the Ukrenergo operation, long scrolls of paper showing nodes and connections of Borgesian complexity. Each map represented the timeline of an intrusion by Sandworm. By then, the hacker group had been the consuming focus of Yasinsky’s work for nearly two years, going back to its first attack on StarLightMedia. He told me there was still no way to know exactly how many Ukrainian institutions had been hit in the escalating campaign of cyberattacks; any count was liable to be an underestimate. For every publicly known target, there was at least one secret victim that hadn’t admitted to being breached, and still other targets that hadn’t yet discovered the intruders in their systems. 

In fact, Yasinsky said, the next wave of the digital invasion might have already been under way even then. Behind him, two younger, bearded ISSP staffers were locked into their keyboards and screens, pulling apart malware that the company had obtained just the day before from a new round of phishing emails. The attacks, Yasinsky had come to believe, took on a seasonal cycle: During the first months of the year, the hackers laid their groundwork, silently penetrating targets and spreading their presence. At the end of the year, they unleashed their payload. Yasinsky suggested that even as he was analyzing last year’s power grid attack, the seeds had already been sown for 2017’s December surprises. 

Bracing for the next round, Yasinsky told me, was like “studying for an approaching final exam.” He maintained that what he and Ukraine had faced so far was likely just a series of practice tests. 

He summed up the attackers’ intentions in a single Russian word: poligon. A training ground. Even in their most damaging attacks, Yasinsky said, the hackers could have gone further. They could have destroyed not just the Ministry of Finance’s stored data but its backups too. They probably could have knocked out Ukrenergo’s transmission station for longer or caused permanent, physical harm to the grid—a restraint that American analysts like Assante and Lee had also noted in my conversations with them. “They’re still playing with us,” Yasinsky said. Each time, the hackers retreated before accomplishing the maximum possible damage, as if reserving their true capabilities for some future operation. “We can only hope that they’re not done playing yet.” 

Yasinsky wasn’t alone in forming that new, foreboding theory around Ukraine’s cyberwar: International observers began to posit that Russia was turning the country into a test lab, trying out digital tactics that it might later unleash on the West. Where better to train an army of Kremlin hackers than in the no-holds-barred atmosphere of a hot war inside Putin’s own sphere of influence? “The gloves are off. This is a place where you can do your worst without retaliation or prosecution,” Kenneth Geers, the NATO ambassador, told me. “Ukraine is not France or Germany. A lot of Americans can’t find it on a map. So you can practice there.” 

In that shadow of neglect, Russia wasn’t only pushing the limits of its technical abilities, said Thomas Rid, a professor of strategic and military studies at Johns Hopkins. It was also feeling out the edges of what the international community would tolerate. “They’re testing out red lines, what they can get away with,” Rid told me. “You push and see if you’re pushed back. If not, you try the next step.” 

And what would it look like when the hackers ceased to play those exhibition games and unleashed their full powers? In the dim back room at ISSP’s office in Kiev during my spring 2017 visit, Yasinsky admitted to me that he didn’t know what form the next attack would take. Perhaps another, more severe blackout. Or maybe a targeted attack on a water facility. Regardless, he said, he believed it would reach out, like the blackout that he felt in his own home, well beyond the internet as we’ve long understood it, into the infrastructure of the physical world. 

Behind him, the fading afternoon light glowed through the blinds, rendering his face a dark silhouette. “Cyberspace is not a target in itself. It’s a medium,” Yasinsky said. “Use your imagination.”

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